In Rhode Island’s news, the tragic H1N1-related death of a 12-year-old has been getting a lot of attention. In national and international news, the H1N1 drumbeat is also loud – and people are in a panic due to vaccine supply shortages.
With so much media attention – and a nationally declared emergency – I decided to search the web for the latest numbers on swine flu fatalities.
As best as I can tell, there have been 114 pediatric deaths caused by H1N1 so far this year in the United Sates. It’s a big number. And it’s tragic – my heart goes out to the families involved. But let’s put that figure in perspective.
Year to date, more than 76,000 Americans have died of heart disease. More than 457,000 people have died of cancer. In what can only be considered twisted irony, the 114 total pediatric swine flu deaths is the exact average number of Americans killed in car crashes – each and every day.
In fact, more than 20,000 Americans die of the flu each year anyway. And that’s from the days before H1N1. So what’s with all the media attention? What’s with the fear? Am I missing something?
The United States has “purchased” 250 million vaccines. But from whom? The same drug companies that buy ads on CNN, Fox News and MSNBC. There is a suspicious connection between the coverage of the swine flu and the companies that profit from it. It’s as if this is all some genius and evil marketing campaign.
Call me a conspiracy theorist, but things just don’t add up. I’m not one to advocate for worry or fear as it is an ineffective use of energy. But if you are going to make the decision to fret, why not fret about the real issues at hand? After all, you’re far more likely to be struck by lightening than die of the swine flu.
Let’s take a few breaths and take down the panic level a few notches. Things are going to be okay.
November 5, 2009 at 6:02 pm
Why is everyone fixated on the number of people who have died of the H1N1? Not one person has stated how many people have contracted it and are doing fine now. I’m guessing this would be the majority and wouldn’t make as good a headline. Oh, and if you think the hype is bad in America, I’ve just recently moved to Japan and welcome to the world of Hypochondria!
November 5, 2009 at 6:50 pm
The number of deaths from the Seasonal Influenza A each year is roughly 20,000.
The problem with H1N1 is exactly the number of people who have the disease. Currently, the number of people with 2009 A (H1N1) is roughly 20X the seasonal flu incidence.
With a case death rate between seasonal flu and H1N1 being the same at 0.1%, you can see how the officials are sounding the alarm over the current situation.
The CDC and the NIH are estimating an attack rate for 2009 of 8%. If the country has 301 million people, and the affected community rate is 75% and the attack rate is 8% and the case mortality rate is 0.1%, that means the number of deaths from the Swine Originated Influenza A (H1N1) will climb to 18,600 over and above the annualized burden of 20,000 from the Seasonal Influenza A, and that burden falls disproportionately upon the very young and upon pregnant women. If the affected community rate climbs to 90%, then added deaths rise to 20,600.
This situation is serious, but not catastrophic. If we elect to get out in front of this pandemic by proper education and vaccination, then we will be fine. If we do not, then there will be world-wide hell to pay. The case mortality rate is low in the US, but as we saw in Mexico last year, it can get out of hand very quickly.
We are right to sound the alarm on this issue. Since the 1919 Pandemic, conditions and therapies have improved beyond scope. However, we have also quadrupled the number of people on this planet, and we could easily see another pandemic that kills millions of people again. We saw what happened with the numbers in the HIV epidemic, and that is a virus with very poor communicability, long latency, and long disease course. This thing is easily spread, very virulent, and courses quickly—much more quickly than the health care system can respond.
November 5, 2009 at 9:33 pm
To compare swine flu which is an INFECTIOUS disease that can be easily spread by close contact with an infected person (communicable) to heart disease, cancer (non-communicable illnesses) and even AIDS (infectious and communicable but through sex or blood, not a sneeze)is erroneous. Yes the media has focused alot on the number of persons who have already contracted this illness and rhose who have died, but if they neglected to inform the general population we would have a larger pandemic than we already have.
Give the media credit for informing the public on how to avoid getting the illness (hand washing, covering your mouth when you sneeze, and if you have a fever, to stay home until the fever is gone) and where to get vaccinated.
I work in the intensive care unit of a hospital and have taken care of those infected with the H1N1 strain of the flu and these people have been VERY sick. This flu strain is different in that it is affecting younger persons more than older persons, and yes most of the deaths have been in persons with underlying illnesses, yet some have occured in otherwise healthy people.
The media may have over hyped some things, but deaths sell more than those who get well. Let us just hope we never see a 1919 style flu pandemic in our lifetime.
November 6, 2009 at 10:38 am
While I agree with your sentiment that the news has done a service by spreading the word about prevention, I have to take issue with your comment that an analogy to HIV is erroneous.
Yes, retroviruses and influenza viruses behave differently, but the epidemiology of viral infections is very similar, even though there may be timecourse and virulence differences.
The analogy to the HIV pandemic has more to do with the public response. The point that was to made was that viral histories tend to start slowly, and can lead officals and the public alike to take them lightly. Then, after a period of spread, the attack rate truly becomes apparent, and the prevalence goes up exponentially.
In Eboblavirus, the attack rate is nearly 100% and the case mortality rate is close to 100%, so, things happen very fast and then it is over. A virus like that cannot spread very far because the affected people die before they can move on to infect others.
In contrast, the influenza viruses have low case mortality rates, so, people live to spread the virus. That leads to a rapid increase in prevalence. The only thing that keeps the prevalence from becoming catastrophic is that the time course of the disease is very short.
The types of viruses that demand large-scale responses are the viruses that spread quickly but have low kill rates. These viruses spread quickly and kill in large numbers by infecting really large numbers of people. That is what we have here.
The advantage, if you will, to retroviruses like HIV, is that the time course of the disease is very long. That allows the public response to “catch up” on the treatment and prevention side.
We do not have that luxury with influenza viruses.
November 6, 2009 at 2:28 pm
Come on people, are we going to be proactive or reactive with lives.
November 6, 2009 at 9:30 pm
I understand what you mean davey. I did a little research myself to see what all the panic is about and I found that the swine flu is just as bad as any old flu and there are many more dangerous things going around that arn’t getting nearly as much attention as swine flu. I honestly don’t know what all the comotion is about.
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November 8, 2009 at 6:52 pm
Viruses mutate. In every flu outbreak, mild or nasty, the virus we start with is not the one we end with. It’s simple evolutionary reality.
Just because it’s been mild so far is irrelevant. It could be mutating right now. Nobody knows.
What we do know is that H1N1 hasn’t been around here for 60 years. That means no built up immunity from previous exposure in huge swaths of the population. Long as it stays mild, that just means a lot of people having a few miserable days. If it mutates, we got a problem.
Read about the 1918 “Spanish flu epidemic”. It was an H1N1. Killed upward of 6% of the population. That would be a US/Canadian death count of 20 million.
Not 20,000. 20 *MILLION*. Oh and the 1918 epidemic killed the young and healthy. The athletic teens and 20somethings. In fact, the people with the beast immune systems were more likely to die.
By the way, the 1918 epidemic was preceded by a mild outbreak. Having a mild outbreak now means nothing.
That’s what has the actual experts worried. The media is being lazy. They’re obviously not educating anybody about anything. It’s not profitable after all. Fear sells. Journalism is haaaaaaaard.
With no immunity built up from previous exposure (which we have in the case of ordinary, seasonal flues), whatever H1N1 is, it’s going to rip through the population. If it stays mild, no big thing.
But nothing says it *can’t* mutate. In fact, it *is* mutating. Right now. A deadly, 1918 style pandemic could start anywhere between never and fifteen minutes ago.
We don’t know.
Oh, one other thing we do know. The current vaccine is apparently a fit. That is, it’s effective. It works.
I’m getting it. Soon as it becomes available here.
If H1N1 stays mild, then it’s just one less flu I’ll get (given I’ve already done the seasonal vaccine).
If it pulls a 1918 then… well… somebody’s going to have to help bury the bodies I guess…
November 25, 2009 at 3:59 am
I agree with you Davey. There have been similar shortages in Canada as well, and this is what I am told. The vaccine is only a boost to the immune system… It truely does nothing in direct relationship to the H1N1 flu. Here is my proof. I got the vaccine on November 10th(was required to get it as I am a paramedic). I got the H1N1 on 18th and was quarentined for a week. It was absolutely no different then any other flu I have ever had. The government and media portray it to be much worse than it really is. I am sad to say that, yes it does seem to be targeting the younger ‘healthier’ kids, but really every kid that has died from the H1N1 had underlying ilnesses. I really don’t understand what the hype is from.
November 28, 2009 at 3:01 am
Well, according to a Purdue University study modeling the swine flu infection rate, by the end of December, 65% of the population will have been infected, 25% getting ill (strange statistic that I haven’t understood yet) and the peak of the swine flu is supposed to be the last two weeks of October. Add the latest news from MSNBC and the WHO, Western Europe and many parts of the USA are reporting that the H1N1 rate has already peaked, and we’re on a steady decline. Oh yeah, and the worldwide death toll from H1N1? 6770.
H1N1 already nailed South and Central America over the summer for us here, and well, they also reported a rather underwhelming death rate and severity in sickness. And they NEVER GOT THE VACCINE!
Regular Flu kills at least 25,000 people a year in the USA alone. Diarrhea kills 1.5 MILLION CHILDREN a year worldwide.
Yes, the H1N1 is unbelievably overhyped.