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Nov
1
Sick of the swine flu.
November 1, 2009 | 115 Comments
In Rhode Island’s news, the tragic H1N1-related death of a 12-year-old has been getting a lot of attention. In national and international news, the H1N1 drumbeat is also loud – and people are in a panic due to vaccine supply shortages.
With so much media attention – and a nationally declared emergency – I decided to search the web for the latest numbers on swine flu fatalities.
As best as I can tell, there have been 114 pediatric deaths caused by H1N1 so far this year in the United Sates. It’s a big number. And it’s tragic – my heart goes out to the families involved. But let’s put that figure in perspective.
Year to date, more than 76,000 Americans have died of heart disease. More than 457,000 people have died of cancer. In what can only be considered twisted irony, the 114 total pediatric swine flu deaths is the exact average number of Americans killed in car crashes – each and every day.
In fact, more than 20,000 Americans die of the flu each year anyway. And that’s from the days before H1N1. So what’s with all the media attention? What’s with the fear? Am I missing something?
The United States has “purchased” 250 million vaccines. But from whom? The same drug companies that buy ads on CNN, Fox News and MSNBC. There is a suspicious connection between the coverage of the swine flu and the companies that profit from it. It’s as if this is all some genius and evil marketing campaign.
Call me a conspiracy theorist, but things just don’t add up. I’m not one to advocate for worry or fear as it is an ineffective use of energy. But if you are going to make the decision to fret, why not fret about the real issues at hand? After all, you’re far more likely to be struck by lightening than die of the swine flu.
Let’s take a few breaths and take down the panic level a few notches. Things are going to be okay.
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The vaccine insert for the swine flu vaccine admits that potential side effects include Guillain-Barre Syndrome, Vasculitis, Paralysis, Anaphylactic Shock And Death along with a long list of other conditions. (source http://www.federaljack.com/?p=12446)
Better safe than sorry might mean not taking the vaccine, especially if you are in a low risk group. Many of the swine flu cases reported are not actually swine flu at all since hospitals don’t test everyone with flu for swine flu.
114 people die from the swine flu and everyone wants to wear protective masks. Countless people contract and die from HIV/AIDS and still no one wants to wear a condom…
im in england i have knowen one person with swine flu nd it was my lil cuz she was fine after a few days, but i dnt see what all the fuss is about my uncle my cuz’ fater has throat cancer and had a lower imune system when she got swine flu and he didnt contract it, so i do not understand why ppl are worring and freaking out so much about it.
love nd light 2 all
Andrew
xx
Rush fart. Is that what all those queens from the Disco era got from snorting all those poppers?
Dave, I’d check on that statistic before boldly claiming one’s ‘far more likely’ to be struck by lightening than to die of the swine flu. With no doubt, it is being hyped up by the media but nevertheless it is a necessary concern – especially for those of us living in bigger cities and limited to commute by crowded public transportations. As for dying of heart disease and cancer, we either have some control over it or no control at all. Swine flu – with or without pharmaceutical industry’s propaganda – is definitely preventable.
I am a little disappointed. For a person who acts like he is one with the universe, you sure don’t have much sympathy do you. Well I guess you do when it comes to something you THINK is important.
The Swine Flu is a NEW THREAT. Yes people die from the flu every year and from cancer and heart disease and whatever else is out there. I agree with some of the comments above where some people have experienced family members did from this.
You are a hyproctrict.(I know I didn’t spell it right) We don’t hear the Reverand Jessie Jackson or any other person in such a position complaining about the media attention such as you are.
People like Jessie Jackson probably feel the same about the universe as you do and we don’t hear them saying anything negative.
I thought that you were pretty mature for your age Davey. Lately I am beginning to rethink that. If you were related to that 12yr old kid? Would you still be saying what you are?
Dave, I’d check on that statistic before boldly claiming one’s ‘far more likely’ to be struck by lightening than to die of the swine flu. No doubt the issue is being hyped up by the media but so is te case with Jon Gosselin…and the balloon boy. It is nevertheless a necessary and valid concern – especially for those of us living in bigger cities and limited to daily commute on crowded public transportations. As for dying of heart disease and cancer, we either have some control over it or no control at all. Deaths by Swine flu or any flu for that matter – with or without pharmaceutical industry’s propaganda – is something preventable with caution and knowledge.
Any death from the flu is a tragedy. However, a potentially larger tragedy is how poorly the US government has handled development of the vaccine. If H1N1 was as virulent as the 1918 flu, we would all be in trouble.
I so disagree with you, Davey. Back in 1981 when “Gay Immune Related Deficiency Syndrome” (now known as AIDS) was first reported, many people used the same “logic” – the number of people diagnosed/dying is small; who cares – it’s only affecting gays?; etc.
H1N1 is a real threat. Viruses continually mutate and find ways to become more virulent and drug resistant. While so far only a small number of deaths have occurred, the cost of this illness is huge. The number of kids missing school because of illness, the number of adults missing work because of illness, the Intensive Care Unit costs of those who are severely ill (but are surviving), etc.
Initially, I was skeptical of the severity and impact of H1N1, but then I asked the nurses in the ICU at the hospital where I am a consultant about this. They have seen several individuals hospitalized in the ICU with H1N1. While they have only confirmed two deaths from the virus, the others in the ICU have required ventilators to breathe for them for 2 days to two weeks or longer. And this is just the start of the flu season.
I ask, you, Davey Wavey, How many people have to get H1N1 and how many have to die from H1N1 before you would consider it to be serious enough to worry about? What if it were your mother who gets H1N1? She is at risk with her history of breast cancer?
H1N1 is just a new stain of the flu!
It’s no worse than the normal flu! I had it!
If you have it, or even just the flu, STAY HOME!
And drink LOTS of water!!!
That’s how you don’t die from it!
I believe your statistic on lightning is a little off. Lightning is predictable and only happens at certain times in certain places. Numbers of lightning strikes are constant. True pandemics increase in size exponentially as they progress. Eventually they die out but they leave a wide path of destruction.
Early detection and early treatment is the best course of action. If the vaccine is effective then it doesn’t matter who’s profiting from it – better to have it and not become ill. We pre-empted SARS because of the work of a disease and outbreak detection agency in Ottawa, Canada, and we’ve probably treated swine flu early enough that it won’t be a huge deal too. Thank God for that. I don’t want to see the pandemic that comes to fruition.
I think your connection between drug companies and media advertising is off. The reason the media continues to cover the issue is because everyone keeps watching and reading about it. It draws ratings, brings in web hits, and sells newspapers, which in turn brings in ad dollars. So the swine flu is just like any other story to the media, one that can generate an audience for all of its advertisers.
I agree the media may have over-covered the story, but the hype can’t totally be blamed on them. The government gave really mixed messages when it broke out, elevating the outbreak to pandemic status very quickly, yet saying it looks like its no worse then the regular flu. Just wash your hands and you’ll be fine. Then when the second wave started hitting toward the end of the summer, the government was frantic to get the vaccine’s out to people, telling people to get the most at-risk people vaccinated, yet they didn’t have many vaccines available. That would concern and confuse any parent or family member with an at-risk loved one.
History has a lot to do with it too. When the original swine flu broke out in the early 1900s, it had similarities to our current strain. It started late in the flu season, went away, then came back in the fall stronger and killed thousands. On paper, the H1N1 was very scary in the beginning. It was a virus that 1-spread quickly, 2-had no vaccine, 3-that no one was immune to and 4-for some, resulted in death. Scary.
I do agree, though, that people do need to take a step back and relax a little, but I can see how things got to this level of fear. Less conspiracy, though, and more over cautiousness, it seems. I think its also good practice for the government to take this so seriously. They’ll be better prepared if/when a really nasty virus breaks out, and hopefully they can save us before it wipes out the population.
By the way, Davey, I love you too
But here is what is happening: The television, radio, and news papers are saying- “Go get your flu shots before the vaccine runs out”, “It will take x amount of time before more vaccine is made, don’t be caught with this DEADLY-” (emphasis on DEADLY) “-disease”.
The media is scarring people into a panic with the urgency to SPEND more money on something perfectly preventable by simple cleanliness and sanitization.
The media SHOULD BE SAYING stuff like: wash your hands frequently, if you are easily sick several times per year, consider taking vitamins to strengthen your immune system- stuff like that. Instead, they are like ‘GO GET A FLU SHOT NOW before it’s too late!’, in order to get people to spend money. They create this fear by saying, “…another death of swine flu today- this brings the number of swine flu related deaths to x people”, or “abc school was closed for two days due to a high number of students coming down with swine flue”. Jesus Christ swine flu is treatable.
In a world where HIV becoming more and more prevalent, it seems that we should be focusing at least some attention on this topic, rather than something else that can be cured with a simple visit to your doctor.
And Don’t say that the big corporations don’t appreciate the business that the media is generating for them. I would not be at all surprised to find out that the CEO of some fricken H1N1 vaccine-making company had made a deal with the CEO of some top U.S. television station to run more stories about h1n1 because it continues to get people to spend more money on flu shots.
Getting more back to the discussion- the “hype”, all davey is saying, at least from my understanding, is that there are WORSE things and more dangerous things, NOT as treatable as swine, existing in the world. EVERY human life is valuable. But the fact of davey’s point is that we are losing MORE human lives on other things WAY WORSE than swine flue. If you could save 1500 people a year from a death by swine flu, or 1,500,000 people a year dying from HIV/AIDS,(not exact statiscics), wouldn’t you probably try to find a cure or at least FOCUS on what is killing MORE people?
Now-. if I had a family member or friend die of swine, I would probably say something different. But wouldn’t everybody else change what they were saying too if they were in the same situation? They probs would…
the odds of you getting flu like symptoms from the vaccine causing you to think that you have the H1N1 flu are great enough that not only will you be overloading hospitals but you’ll be taking away much needed attention to people who actually need assistance. Your commuter comment is ridiculous because you’d still be susceptible to the average flu regardless of whether H1N1 is prevalent and you don’t see the media going into a frenzy about the average flu in previous years. Furthermore, if you’re healthy and in the right age bracket, the chances of you dying from H1N1 are not likely because at the end of the day, people do overcome the flu and it’s a matter of washing your hands. If you don’t practice sanitation, then by all means worry about commuting
This is TOTALLY TRUE! people are making a big deal about it and it isnt as big as they say it is. Yes to those who have family members like the 6 year olds mentioned it is a very sensitive subject, however the fact is it has been blown way out of proportion. And causing world wide panic is not only unnecessary but could be harmful in itself. Everyone is scared so they go get these vaccines that could end up being harmful to them and the only reason they were scared in the first place was because they were misguided on how horrible the swine flu is.
mate – you need to learn to distinguish between death we can do little about (i.e. being hit by lightning) and death we can easily prevent.
Not sure what’s the deal in the U.S. but here in Australia the vaccine is free. Went to the doctor’s office last month, 10 mins later and $0 out of pocket I was vaccinated.
Not a huge fan of corporate america or corporate anything either, but if a few more scientists have made a living and a few more kids decided to go and study biotechnology or imunology at uni, rather than inventing some useless sub-prime investment vehicles, I’m happy.
As to your point, I think the rest of the world went through the panic around march or april this year… Almost forgotten all about it.
Davey Wavey..I got my flu shot…so I will be one of the healthy ones still standing in Jerszzy when you are long gone…Love “your” David
Hey, I think this post is really great.. maybe one of your best posts ever. You really made a good point. I wish you all the best
David, to begin with, I will not take shot… who knows what is actually within the vaccine… I will consume lots of lemon and vitamins and fruits… that will do it just fine. I dont want to help dirty companies in money laundering…
p.s. screw you, David, we shall se in two or tree years how will the vaccine affect you…
i completely agree. Maybe I am a conspiracy theorist too but I feel it is just drug company and media hype. I didn’t even get a flu vaccine nor will I get one or an H1N1 vaccine. I do this for my own reasons. I know that each and every year there are a lot of deaths related to the flu anyway. I know this. I did some research and yes there is a definite spike in the number of deaths associated with H1N1. It happens only in the very weak, elderly, children and pregnant. I’m not worried though. I think disasters and disease are also something that is natural and we have evolved from these things. These things are needed to keep our populations in check.
1st of all he did say that he feels very sorry for the families of te deseased ones…. i feel sorry, too, but i have to say that one life of one beign is not so big deal… there are many, many, many people on this planet. flu can be idividual tragedy, anyway, but will never be pandemia, and that is blown up story… i hope your niece will be better,. but one death will never be colective tragedy (though you may say we are all one)….
lol, teenagers are also vunerabale group for swine flu… but no one can help me, but me… and i will not take vaccine.
agree
swine flu can be individual tragedy, but will never be massive/collective tragedy.
you are dramaqueen…
wash hands, eat leamon and fruits, drink tea…
I think there is reason everybody wants so much to make people take those vaccines… and maybe it is not totally about money, who knows how could it effect. Anyway, I wont take it… vitamins, vitamins, tea and being clean will do it perfectly fine… Yes, every life is valuable, but no, I wouldnt change my mind even if someone close to me died of it, that still would not be a colective tragedy (as millions of deaths of cancer, or AIDS are).
I totally agree.
I think your opinion is sad. I think it’s a tragedy when one to many people die.
It is tragedy when one die, but be rational: if you have to kill 5 people, or 1? what would you do? that just can’t be same… plus, we were speaking about 100 000 agains 100… that is not and never will be the same. It is not massive tragedy if one kid die.
p.s. i haven’t said that it is not tragedy when one bieng dies. I told that it is NOT MASSIVE tragedy… and it isn’t.
p.p.s. and you have to be rational… even 1 against 1 life isn’t same. if you have to chose between your neighbour, mother, and some guy you don’t know, who would you let live? but be honest. Life might sucks… but that is the way thing are going, so it totali unadequate for you to say that my opinion is sad, life’s sad.
1st Flu story is media-hiped.
2nd I am sorry about you and your niece, but that is not MASSIVE TRAGEDY.
3rd If i had someone sick of this flu I still would think that flu is blown-up story.
4th How may people died of it? And how many are sick?
5th Compare the numbers> Swine flu vs AIDS/ Swine flu vs Cancer/ Swine flu vs Diabetes.
6th I hope your niece will be better… and i am sorry for her, but that is individual tragedy, not collective one.
well thats abit stupid, yer teenages get swine flu like everyone else, but the main people to catch it is old people and kids.. if u dont wanna take a vaccine then thats fine but if its there why not. saves you the trouble of getting sick
but because people wear masks than this could of stopped it from getting worse, and the hiv is another story, its teenages that dont know much about hiv and people that get a high of unprotected sex
Thanks Davey . I was saying the same thing to my sister yesterday. The H1N1 is not as deadly as the flu in 1918 when 100,000s of people die in a very short time. I agree with you Davey. Again thank Davey Wavey for coming out and saying something about it. I love you point of view and you help me rethink my own views on life and I am a straight woman. Keep doing what you and don’t let anybody stop you .
I have a friend in the hospital right now that got the h1n1 so bad that they had to put her into a drug induced coma to help her body recover. She was on a respriator for over a week without any improvement and it was not looking good. We have finally started to see an improvement and the doctor think that she will be one of the lucky ones in beating it when considering how badly it affected her. She is not in a high risk group. She is in her 40’s.
Like you, my heart goes out to the families of those who have died of the swine flu as well … but I also agree that there is a lot of attention being given to the swine flu, which by comparison to the deaths of persons for other reasons just isn’t justified. I also suspect that some of the motivation behind these “scare tactics” is directly due to the hesitation on the part of some to get the H1N1 flu shot. These shots were given back in the 70’s and even then there were reports of TERRIBLE side effects, directly related to the shots themselves. My own mother had back problems and trouble breathing for several days after receiving the shot. There’s a lot of talk about this round of shots being no different than the prior, linking the shots to nerve disease, etc. The truth of the matter is that we need to be a little less eager to attack every threat of a possible virus with vaccinations; especially when those vaccines were rushed and haven’t been thoroughly tested before their distribution. My doctors wanted me to get the vaccine; however, I’ve decided to just take my own chances with the virus. Thanks for saying what needed to be said. Love ya, buddy. -M
Hello Davey!
I think you are right. It’s not just a flu. There are many things happening in the background of all this. Profit and spreading fear are some of them. Nothing is random.
It’s kind of when your neighbor is out of work its a recession. When your out of work its a depression. One death that is preventable is a tragedy.
” If anyone insist that corporations aren’t heartless greed machines
that only care about the bottom line, they’ve obviously never heard
of (or forgotten about) Ford’s handling of the fuel-leakage problem
of the early 1970s. By 1973, Ford knew that some of its models leaked
fuel when they turned over–leading to fires and explosions–and that
this would be fixed by installing an $11 valve. So Ford immediately told
all vehicle owners to drive to their nearest Ford dealer for a quick
replacement, right? Well, no. First they did a little number-crunching.
They figured that if they did nothing, the fuel leakage would result in
180 deaths. 180 serious injuries, and2,100 burned vehicles. So then they
issued a recall, right? Surely it would be worth it if they could save
just one person from burning to death in an inferno of gas and metal. Not
exactly. They figured that each death would cost them an average of $200,000
in legal fees, settlements, etc.; each serious injury would set them back
$67,000; and each burned vehicle would result in a $700 tab. Therefore, the
total cost would be $49.5 million. Then they figured the other side of the
equation. If they spent $11 to replace the valve on 11 million cars and 1.5
million light trucks, it would cost them $137 million. IT WAS MUCH CHEAPER TO
NOTHING AND LET AN ESTIMATED 180 PEOPLE GET IMMOLATED AND AN EQUAL NUMBER
SPEND THE REST OF THEIR LIVES RECOVERING FROM SEVERE BURNS. So that’s exactly
what they did–nothing. (There was never a recall, though eight years later,
Ford did make the necessary minor modifications to new cars being assembled.)
This case is still taught as an example of cost-benefit analysis in many college
business text books.”
I had met the main plaintiff in this case, horribly disfigured and was attempting to play a guitar with his deformed hands. I along with thousands in Orange County Ca. worked for that side with out renumeration. When the case finally settled we got paid.
I have ZERO sympathy for those who value the almighty dollar over life. These same cheap people will just as soon let our veterans rot rather than pay for the new high tech prosthetic. They loose a limb but your going to decide what your going to pay. Why not
execute the disabled, they’re just a drain on society. H1N1 is just a scam. We can’t afford it. For those of you who ascribe to that thought, you need to move to a country that
DOESN’T care. Just leave this one.
and what about nuss (bad) effects? and what about money loundary?
you are twisting my words…. i am not saying that H1N1 infected people should be killed or whatever, i am just saying that the one death is not massive tragedy, nor is swine flu worlddanger…
i totally agree on this… also bad energy and panic will destroy peoples imune system, so thay will be more vunerable…. and i am sure that the vaccines are harmful.
i am not from the USA nor Australia, and i am not talking about money or about the time, but i am worried that these vaccines could be harmful. why is there all this yelling “get shot” “be safe from flu” “you will die without vaccine”… if there is nothing behind?
totally agree.
Here are the facts:
H1N1 FluGeneral Info
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H1N1 Flu2009 H1N1 Flu: Situation Update
October 30, 2009, 5:30 PM ET
U.S. Situation Update
Weekly Flu Activity Estimates
U.S. Patient Visits Reported for Influenza-like Illness (ILI)
U.S. Influenza-like Illness (ILI) Reported by Regions
U.S. Influenza and Pneumonia-Associated Hospitalizations and Deaths from August 30 to October 24, 2009
International
Situation Update
Map of International
Activity Estimates
(Including 2009 H1N1 Flu)
Key Flu Indicators
October 30, 2009, 1:30 PM
Each week CDC analyzes information about influenza disease activity in the United States and publishes findings of key flu indicators in a report called FluView. During the week of October 18-24, 2009, a review of the key indictors found that influenza activity continued to increase in the United States from the previous week. Below is a summary of the most recent key indicators:
•Visits to doctors for influenza-like illness (ILI) increased steeply since last week in the United States, and overall, are much higher than what is expected for this time of the year. ILI activity now is higher than what is seen during the peak of many regular flu seasons.
•Total influenza hospitalization rates for laboratory-confirmed flu are climbing and are higher than expected for this time of year. Hospitalization rates continue to be highest is younger populations with the highest hospitalization rate reported in children 0-4 years old.
•The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) based on the 122 Cities Report has increased and has been higher than what is expected at this time of year for four weeks now. In addition, 22 flu-related pediatric deaths were reported this week; 19 of these deaths were confirmed 2009 H1N1, and three were influenza A viruses, but were not subtyped. Since April 2009, CDC has received reports of 114 laboratory-confirmed pediatric 2009 H1N1 deaths and another 12 pediatric deaths that were laboratory confirmed as influenza, but where the flu virus subtype was not determined.
•Forty-eight states are reporting widespread influenza activity at this time. They are: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This many reports of widespread activity are unprecedented during seasonal flu.
•Almost all of the influenza viruses identified so far are 2009 H1N1 influenza A viruses. These viruses remain similar to the virus chosen for the 2009 H1N1 vaccine, and remain susceptible to the antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir with rare exception.
I say do what you need to do. A friend of mine passed away from it a few months ago, so I’ve seen first hand how real it is.
Vaccine or not, I think it should be taken seriously. Until you’ve lost someone to it, it doesn’t seem like reality.
yea it’s all hype. Most people who die from swine flu didn’t seek immediate medical attention to begin with or got too dehydrated. My mom has had several patients with H1N1 and they all did fine. I’m not saying that every person who has swine flu can’t die of it,but those patients took pretty good care of themselves and sought medical help before their symptoms got out of control.
You are sooo insightful, Davy. I’m astounded by some of the comments I’ve just read – on the other hand they reflect the affects of the print, electronic media and corporate coverage of this problem. You have another ‘lover’ here!
He is not being a drama queen. He is a being an
adult who cares about what it is doing to people.
Gnjen, what if it was your brother, sister or
mother or someone else you deeply care about. Or
do you want to call me a drama queen too?
If you do, then we know where people like you stand.
Hey Davey Wavy:
Everything you say is true. HOWEVER, I think it is important to understnd a couple of things about the H1N1 that makes alittle bit of panic a good thing. Not a lot, but a little.
First, the basic virulence of H1N1 makes it ripe for the types of exponential growth in cases that we have seen in other flu pandemics. Yes, while the case to fatality rate can be low (less than 0.1%), the case rate can get out of hand so much that the total deaths gets out of hand.
In Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1919, 50 million people died, and the case fatality rate was not much higher than in this pandemic. Pandemics have a way of getting going slowly, which can lul people into a false sense of security. Then they get crazy really fast.
Ask the family of the dead 11 year-old whether or not they think a significant, coordinated response is in order.
We have a saying in medicine, “It ain’t rare if you’re in the chair.” If you are dying of H1N1, you regret not getting vaccinated. It is all risk-benefit. The risk and the cost of vaccination is low compared to the cost of large-scale pandemic and the mrobidity it causes.
Finally, the big thing with this version of H1N1 (the Spanish Pandemic was also an H1N1 variant) is that it targets children and pregnant women disproportionately. These groups died in droves during the 1919 Pandemic.
If we sat back, and responded after the virus gained that kind of momentum, we would be talking about a very different type of conspiracy theory.
Again, I pologize for the typos.
Ahhhh! Apologize. You’d think I didn’ spend ten years in college.
I agree with the fact that this H1N1 doesn’t deserve so many attention!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dELTytsEzSk
More children have died from the H1N1 in the US so far, than in a full flu season. Having had the opportunity to have a vaccine for them could and would have saved lives!
It’s not a conspiracy theory when it is freaking true and obvious.
FALSE STATISTICS – HYPE – DRAMATIZED! My brother got sick and went to the doctor. They swabbed his nose and he tested positive for Influenza Type A (the normal FLU). Moments later, they admitted him to the hospital and said he had H1N1. In comes doctor #2 from Infectious Disease and said H1N1 is in the area and he has it. I argued that he is contributing to a pandemic and skewing the numbers. He did not like my comment and said if I REALLY WANTED TO KNOW if my brother had it, it would cost $250 out of pocket because the INSURANCE COMPANIES are not paying for it BECAUSE the treatment is the same as the common flu. This is a joke! He was released two days later. We had to visit him with a 3M mask called N95. Profits and good marketing for HOSPITALS, DOCTORS, and mask makers. By the way, he also had a low pressure when they admitted him. And very good health insurance.
You dont know what would happen… and, anyway, how many kids died? exactly?
To begin with, I alredy told thousands of time> if my brother or someone closed to me suffered from swine flu, or even died of it, that would be my, INDIVIDUAL tragedy, and tragedy for my family, not for the world. I wouldn’t call you dramaqueen, I would call you egoist if you are saying that the death of someone close to you is MASSIVE or COLLECTIVE tragedy.
First of all mutated virus is made by someone. Second, we were not telling that the virus isn’t true, but we said that the vaccines are suspicious. And only thing obvius is that someone wants very much to as many as posible people get shots. But their health is not the reason, believe me.
that’s what i was talking about.
Man, everyone needs to relax. Yes, this current pandemic has slow momentum, but the HIV analogy is very good. The potential for exponential growth is very high. When you look at the death rate curves from other inluenzae epidemics, there is a slow growth phase intitally that grows very quickly. They are trying to prevent that from hppening here.
There is a concept called “herd immunity” that infectious disease people talk about. If you immunize a bunch of fifth graders at a school, the population of protected kids helps prevent disease in the one kid in the class who cannot get vaccinated by having the kid around bunch of people who do not have disease. That is what they are trying to accomplish here. There is strong evidence in the medical literature that herd immunity can prevent exponential rate spreads.
So, the question remains, how safe is the vaccine? The truth is that vaccines are pretty safe. Basically, the risks boil down to three types.
First, there is a risk of infection when an attenuated, or weakened, virus is used, as is the case here. Second, there is the risk of immune reaction to one or more of the components. In this case, the H1N1 vaccine is an albumin base, which is, essentally, egg white. People who have allergies to chicken egg products will not do well, and are advised to avoid the vaccine.
In the past, horse serum was used to make vaccines, and many people had reactions to them. This fact clouds people’s judgements about today. They are fighting the last war.
The second part of the immune reaction is the risk of “injection site morbidity.” That is redness and pain around the injection site. In this case, that will be minimal.
The third risk with vaccination is the very controversial idea that vaccination causes long-term problems like autism. These claims have been completely debunked by some very good epidemiological science in the ten years. So, as a helath care provider, I feel confident that this issue is a red herring.
The bottom line is this, if I told you that there is a vaccine that is free and had no side effects nd could prevent a potentially large-scale pandemic death event from happening, would everyone sign up? I think so.
However, the vaccine is not free, and it does have the same types of low-level risks as all of the other vaccinations that we have out there. So, now, are you on board?
I agree, that the news media and the public need to take a breath. Howeveer, those of us who understand virology know that this particular strain has the potential to do some real damage. They are trying to prevent that from happening.
Remember, this pandemic is not our first rodeo with H1N1. In the past, various forms of this virus, whether the Spanish Flu in 1919, or the Swine Flu of the 1960’s caused millions of deaths.
Finally, the comments made about the individual vs. the collective tragedy is abject bullshit and patently offensive. As a doctor, I work every day to prevent the “collective” tragedies by fixing patients one “individual” at a time.
And, yes, I do think that the parents of that child wish they had had the vaccine before their child got infected.
I am, frankly, very weary of people who do not think twice about getting their kids the MMR vaccine, calling “conspiracy” about this call to vaccinate. That is hypocritical.
Here is some collected information about what is going on:
The CBS Evening News (11/2, story 4, 1:50, Couric) reported that the CDC said Monday that “about 30 million doses of [H1N1] vaccine have been manufactured, still far short of the 250 million expected to be produced.” However, in “encouraging news about the vaccine’s effectiveness,” CBS reported, “Twenty-one days after receiving a single dose of the vaccine, 92% of pregnant women had adequate immunity from H1N1.” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said, “This should be reassuring news to those women who already have received the vaccine and it is vital information for those pregnant women who have not yet been vaccinated.”
The New York Times (11/3, A20, McNeil) reports that “children under 10 still need two doses, federal officials said Monday.” Dr. Fauci said that “children from 6 months to 9 years old should still get two doses, about a month apart.” Meanwhile, in a trial of 50 healthy pregnant women, Dr. Fauci said that the participants “did not experience any unusual rates of side effects and one 15-microgram dose gave a protective level of antibodies.” The Wall Street Journal (11/3, Dooren) notes that officials have seen no safety concerns arise in the pregnant women, according to Fauci.
The Washington Post (11/3, Stein) reports that the study results on children and pregnant women “came as an independent panel of experts organized by the Health and Human Services Department to monitor the safety of the vaccine met for the first time to review the data.” The National Vaccine Advisory Committee’s H1N1 Vaccine Safety Working Group will meet biweekly “to monitor the results of data being collected to detect any problems with the vaccine.”
ABC World News (11/2, story 6, 2:00, Gibson) reported on the panel, noting that “experts from around the country gathered to scour for even the smallest clues that the H1N1 vaccine is causing dangerous reactions. Dr. Bruce Gellin is the government’s point man on vaccines, and says of the millions who have received the vaccine so far there have been only 302 reported side effects.” Dr. Bruce Gellin, of the National Vaccine Program Office, said that side effects were “mostly sore arms, malaise, fever, things like that.” According to ABC, “The government’s massive surveillance effort involves cross-checking lists of those who have received the vaccine with any later reports of health problems. Data will come from health records from the Department of Defense, Veteran Affairs, the Indian Health Service, Medicare, and even from private healthcare plans covering 20 million Americans.”
Bloomberg News (11/3, Wechsler) reports that the panel will use data provided from “federal health plans for the military, the poor and the elderly, and from clinical trials.” HHS spokesman Bill Hall said that the group “will convene twice a month and report to US officials overseeing the vaccine program.” Hall added, “This group will be looking for any signals that there’s something we might need to look at. … It will build a much bigger picture that vaccine safety experts can look at.”
Also at the briefing Monday with Drs. Gellin and Fauci, the AP (11/3, Schmid) reports that Dr. Anne Schuchat, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Disease at the CDC, “said the flu is currently widespread in 48 states and hospitalizations and deaths continue to increase.”
And, “when asked how this H1N1 virus differed from the seasonal flu, Schuchat said they were at opposite ends of the spectrum when it came to high-risk patients,” CNN (11/3, Willingham) reports. “With seasonal flu,” Schuchat explained, “Ninety percent of the deaths every year are in people over the age of 65. … But, with H1N1, 90 percent of the deaths, thus far, have been in people under the age of 65.” The Washington Times (11/3, Geracimos), CQ HealthBeat (11/3, Reichard), and Reuters (11/3, Fox) also cover the story.
gnjen…sorry, but you do NOT know me. Therefore how would you know what I do or do not know??
Don’t forget that 36,000 die each year from regular ole seasonal flu…just be smart and follow regular precautions and things will be ok…
@Kbsassy Isn’t the reason for the many flu deaths of 1918 because they didn’t have todays scientific knowledge and vaccines for prevention?
Why don’t we just have a Large (or community oriented) H1N1 PARTY?
This way, everyone will be present with the virus, and their immune systems will create antibodies.
Sure, many will end up home being sick, not able to work for a few days/weeks while they recover. The economy might suffer for a while, without workers. But then those who attended the party will confidently know that they are now immune from getting the H1N1 in future.
Those with weak immune systems and die, can be categorized as ‘natural selection’.
FYI: The world’s largest retailer wants to keep its customers even after they die. http://tinyurl.com/ygw8rww
Wow thank you for being so level headed. It’s so hard to find people like you who really seem to genuinely want to educate people and let them chose for themselves rather than shove your views down their throat .Good for you!
Along with weather seasons, Flu season is also reversed in the the Southern Hemisphere, in the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries, we are just begining our flu season.
Thanks! I always try to see everything from every possible perspective instead of. It’s not a good idea to see things in just black, white or even gray. Things are rarely ever that simple
Umm… It didn’t “come from pigs”. It’s not that simple. This particular strain has evolved a lot the past few years. It’s attacked certain species of birds, pigs and now it’s moved to humans. So the more scientifically correct term would be Influenza A H1N1, not swine flu, which implies it came from just pigs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H1N1
Thanks for sharing the facts! It’s good to have experts and people in the know to educate others. Though I respect Davey and other blogger’s opinions, sincerely most of them aren’t Biologists or Epidemologists, and their incomplete knowledge in these fields tends to create misinformation or lead people jump to conclusions about the virus (as many are doing now).
Finally someone gets it! Davey now tell the world!
DAVEY; PLEASE, P L E A S E READ THIS!!!!!!!
yep, there IS sth. you’re missing!(and Andrew too)
1st: swineflu pandemic is only starting and (additional) deaths due to the disease will increase!
2nd: in history we already know of two other H1N1 Pandemics, one of which was the spanish flu and we all know about that!
you see why it is important to get vaccinated? and even when you’re healthy and young so you’ll survive the swineflu, you can protect the children, ppl. of weak health, family and friend around you. because if you’re vaccinated you can’t transmit the disease! if you’re not vaccinated, you can get swineflu and you might not even develop symptoms, but you’re a hazzard for all ppl. around you, esp. the weak, and those are the one thet will die, and it is due to you! only because you thought you don’t need vaccination cause you’re strong and young and healthy and you can survive the disease easily (which might be true)!
to protect weak ppl. who can’t get vaccinated it is essencial that those of us who CAN get vaccinated (but might not need it to SURVIVE) do so!
so for the overall Benefit get vaccinated! its the only way to protect others and it only works if those ppl. get vaccinated who would not neccesarily need the vaccination for themselves (they are strong enough to survive) but the cots and risks are low compared to the huge benefit for the society!!!
I hate how media is creating panic! but it is essencial for the weak ppl. in society that ppl. who can, get vaccinated and the only way to help stopping the disease!
oh and I do not know anyone from a pharmaceutic Company and I don’t work for one
I am a Student of infection Biology and epidemiology
So Davey, if you read this, PLEASE, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE(!!!!!!!) write back to me, what you think about it! also if you have questions! because you have such a huge fan community and what you think and say has a great impact. So I would really love you to be properly informed! Especially since you are a compassionate man who cares about others and about the weak ones in the society)
and there is so much more to know about all of this, and it really is important! just think about the possibility of you causing a death because you didn’t know sth you could easily have known
how’s that?
yep there are risks in the vaccine, but the probability of developing these side effects are very low and the benefit of getting vaccinated is very high.
might not be THAT high for oneself, when one is in a low risk group, but you protect others, weaker people if you get vaccinated, and the benefit of the vaccination is much greateer than the risk.
It in some way is a kind of a “charity” thing
remember that spanish flu and the flu pandemic in 77 were H1N1 strains as well!
I repeat myself, but swine flu pandimic is only STARTING once more and more ppl get ill, pll. will change their minds. It IS media-hiped, no question but it also IS important to get vaccinated!
Once ppl. WILL realize, it will be already too late to stop it! better protect you and more important the ppl. around you BEVORE it is too late!
and to get an estimate of how many children/ppl will be affected: the spanish flu and the flu in 77 were H1N1 strains Too!
guys honestly, people don’t get the idea of wearing masks!
you dont wear it to protect yourself from GETTING sth. (like with condoms)
you wear it once you (or someone around you) is infected in order TO PROTECT OTHERS, to not infect others.
to protect you from getting it, masks are only of moderate use.
If you don’t know what I am talking about, ask someone from asia.
sadly that’s not true. many and not only teenagers are malinformed. and many do not even care.
and sooo many think, that they would see it if someine was infected…. so fataly wrong, so sad!
Why is everyone fixated on the number of people who have died of the H1N1? Not one person has stated how many people have contracted it and are doing fine now. I’m guessing this would be the majority and wouldn’t make as good a headline. Oh, and if you think the hype is bad in America, I’ve just recently moved to Japan and welcome to the world of Hypochondria!
The number of deaths from the Seasonal Influenza A each year is roughly 20,000.
The problem with H1N1 is exactly the number of people who have the disease. Currently, the number of people with 2009 A (H1N1) is roughly 20X the seasonal flu incidence.
With a case death rate between seasonal flu and H1N1 being the same at 0.1%, you can see how the officials are sounding the alarm over the current situation.
The CDC and the NIH are estimating an attack rate for 2009 of 8%. If the country has 301 million people, and the affected community rate is 75% and the attack rate is 8% and the case mortality rate is 0.1%, that means the number of deaths from the Swine Originated Influenza A (H1N1) will climb to 18,600 over and above the annualized burden of 20,000 from the Seasonal Influenza A, and that burden falls disproportionately upon the very young and upon pregnant women. If the affected community rate climbs to 90%, then added deaths rise to 20,600.
This situation is serious, but not catastrophic. If we elect to get out in front of this pandemic by proper education and vaccination, then we will be fine. If we do not, then there will be world-wide hell to pay. The case mortality rate is low in the US, but as we saw in Mexico last year, it can get out of hand very quickly.
We are right to sound the alarm on this issue. Since the 1919 Pandemic, conditions and therapies have improved beyond scope. However, we have also quadrupled the number of people on this planet, and we could easily see another pandemic that kills millions of people again. We saw what happened with the numbers in the HIV epidemic, and that is a virus with very poor communicability, long latency, and long disease course. This thing is easily spread, very virulent, and courses quickly—much more quickly than the health care system can respond.
Eric,
“Pneumo 23″ does not protect against the flu. Pneumo 23 is a vaccine that protects against pneumonias. If you want to protect yourself from the flu you shuld still get the flu vaccine, both the regular flu shot and the N1N1 flu shot.
To compare swine flu which is an INFECTIOUS disease that can be easily spread by close contact with an infected person (communicable) to heart disease, cancer (non-communicable illnesses) and even AIDS (infectious and communicable but through sex or blood, not a sneeze)is erroneous. Yes the media has focused alot on the number of persons who have already contracted this illness and rhose who have died, but if they neglected to inform the general population we would have a larger pandemic than we already have.
Give the media credit for informing the public on how to avoid getting the illness (hand washing, covering your mouth when you sneeze, and if you have a fever, to stay home until the fever is gone) and where to get vaccinated.
I work in the intensive care unit of a hospital and have taken care of those infected with the H1N1 strain of the flu and these people have been VERY sick. This flu strain is different in that it is affecting younger persons more than older persons, and yes most of the deaths have been in persons with underlying illnesses, yet some have occured in otherwise healthy people.
The media may have over hyped some things, but deaths sell more than those who get well. Let us just hope we never see a 1919 style flu pandemic in our lifetime.
gnjen,
Apparently you do not have any scientific background. Mutated viruses are not made by “somebody” the viruses that flu, cold, and HIV are retroviruses that use the RNA of the host (infected person) to multiply. If the infected person takes antiviral medications to fight the infection, but do not take the medication correctly (that is take all of the medication ordered, or skip and miss doses) this allows the virus to continue and make changes in it’s own genetic make up and become resistant to medication. This is also known as evolution.
Vaccines are safe and have been given to millions of people with few side effects. With the use of vaccines we have managed to wipe out smallpox and keep other illnesses in check (measles, mumps, rubella, tetanus).
While I agree with your sentiment that the news has done a service by spreading the word about prevention, I have to take issue with your comment that an analogy to HIV is erroneous.
Yes, retroviruses and influenza viruses behave differently, but the epidemiology of viral infections is very similar, even though there may be timecourse and virulence differences.
The analogy to the HIV pandemic has more to do with the public response. The point that was to made was that viral histories tend to start slowly, and can lead officals and the public alike to take them lightly. Then, after a period of spread, the attack rate truly becomes apparent, and the prevalence goes up exponentially.
In Eboblavirus, the attack rate is nearly 100% and the case mortality rate is close to 100%, so, things happen very fast and then it is over. A virus like that cannot spread very far because the affected people die before they can move on to infect others.
In contrast, the influenza viruses have low case mortality rates, so, people live to spread the virus. That leads to a rapid increase in prevalence. The only thing that keeps the prevalence from becoming catastrophic is that the time course of the disease is very short.
The types of viruses that demand large-scale responses are the viruses that spread quickly but have low kill rates. These viruses spread quickly and kill in large numbers by infecting really large numbers of people. That is what we have here.
The advantage, if you will, to retroviruses like HIV, is that the time course of the disease is very long. That allows the public response to “catch up” on the treatment and prevention side.
We do not have that luxury with influenza viruses.
Well I’ll just drink water and I’ll be fine. And if I need money I’ll buy lottery tickets with my dwindling supply of it.
No. I think this story is a bit more important than the coverage of Anna Nicole Smith. But she’s dead and buried and we still hear from her as the media exhumes her.
Yes. I’ll just “wash my hands” of it.
Two weeks on a ventilater is hardly “doing fine.”
Gnjen, that is patently ridiculous.
Come on people, are we going to be proactive or reactive with lives.
I understand what you mean davey. I did a little research myself to see what all the panic is about and I found that the swine flu is just as bad as any old flu and there are many more dangerous things going around that arn’t getting nearly as much attention as swine flu. I honestly don’t know what all the comotion is about.
[...] the rest of Davey’s blog post here. (Warning, some buff male bodies in the right-hand column. Let’s just say that Davey [...]
Viruses mutate. In every flu outbreak, mild or nasty, the virus we start with is not the one we end with. It’s simple evolutionary reality.
Just because it’s been mild so far is irrelevant. It could be mutating right now. Nobody knows.
What we do know is that H1N1 hasn’t been around here for 60 years. That means no built up immunity from previous exposure in huge swaths of the population. Long as it stays mild, that just means a lot of people having a few miserable days. If it mutates, we got a problem.
Read about the 1918 “Spanish flu epidemic”. It was an H1N1. Killed upward of 6% of the population. That would be a US/Canadian death count of 20 million.
Not 20,000. 20 *MILLION*. Oh and the 1918 epidemic killed the young and healthy. The athletic teens and 20somethings. In fact, the people with the beast immune systems were more likely to die.
By the way, the 1918 epidemic was preceded by a mild outbreak. Having a mild outbreak now means nothing.
That’s what has the actual experts worried. The media is being lazy. They’re obviously not educating anybody about anything. It’s not profitable after all. Fear sells. Journalism is haaaaaaaard.
With no immunity built up from previous exposure (which we have in the case of ordinary, seasonal flues), whatever H1N1 is, it’s going to rip through the population. If it stays mild, no big thing.
But nothing says it *can’t* mutate. In fact, it *is* mutating. Right now. A deadly, 1918 style pandemic could start anywhere between never and fifteen minutes ago.
We don’t know.
Oh, one other thing we do know. The current vaccine is apparently a fit. That is, it’s effective. It works.
I’m getting it. Soon as it becomes available here.
If H1N1 stays mild, then it’s just one less flu I’ll get (given I’ve already done the seasonal vaccine).
If it pulls a 1918 then… well… somebody’s going to have to help bury the bodies I guess…
I agree with you Davey. There have been similar shortages in Canada as well, and this is what I am told. The vaccine is only a boost to the immune system… It truely does nothing in direct relationship to the H1N1 flu. Here is my proof. I got the vaccine on November 10th(was required to get it as I am a paramedic). I got the H1N1 on 18th and was quarentined for a week. It was absolutely no different then any other flu I have ever had. The government and media portray it to be much worse than it really is. I am sad to say that, yes it does seem to be targeting the younger ‘healthier’ kids, but really every kid that has died from the H1N1 had underlying ilnesses. I really don’t understand what the hype is from.
Well, according to a Purdue University study modeling the swine flu infection rate, by the end of December, 65% of the population will have been infected, 25% getting ill (strange statistic that I haven’t understood yet) and the peak of the swine flu is supposed to be the last two weeks of October. Add the latest news from MSNBC and the WHO, Western Europe and many parts of the USA are reporting that the H1N1 rate has already peaked, and we’re on a steady decline. Oh yeah, and the worldwide death toll from H1N1? 6770.
H1N1 already nailed South and Central America over the summer for us here, and well, they also reported a rather underwhelming death rate and severity in sickness. And they NEVER GOT THE VACCINE!
Regular Flu kills at least 25,000 people a year in the USA alone. Diarrhea kills 1.5 MILLION CHILDREN a year worldwide.
Yes, the H1N1 is unbelievably overhyped.