H1N1 already nailed South and Central America over the summer for us here, and well, they also reported a rather underwhelming death rate and severity in sickness. And they NEVER GOT THE VACCINE!

Regular Flu kills at least 25,000 people a year in the USA alone. Diarrhea kills 1.5 MILLION CHILDREN a year worldwide.

Yes, the H1N1 is unbelievably overhyped.

Just because it’s been mild so far is irrelevant. It could be mutating right now. Nobody knows.

What we do know is that H1N1 hasn’t been around here for 60 years. That means no built up immunity from previous exposure in huge swaths of the population. Long as it stays mild, that just means a lot of people having a few miserable days. If it mutates, we got a problem.

Read about the 1918 “Spanish flu epidemic”. It was an H1N1. Killed upward of 6% of the population. That would be a US/Canadian death count of 20 million.

Not 20,000. 20 *MILLION*. Oh and the 1918 epidemic killed the young and healthy. The athletic teens and 20somethings. In fact, the people with the beast immune systems were more likely to die.

By the way, the 1918 epidemic was preceded by a mild outbreak. Having a mild outbreak now means nothing.

That’s what has the actual experts worried. The media is being lazy. They’re obviously not educating anybody about anything. It’s not profitable after all. Fear sells. Journalism is haaaaaaaard.

With no immunity built up from previous exposure (which we have in the case of ordinary, seasonal flues), whatever H1N1 is, it’s going to rip through the population. If it stays mild, no big thing.

But nothing says it *can’t* mutate. In fact, it *is* mutating. Right now. A deadly, 1918 style pandemic could start anywhere between never and fifteen minutes ago.

We don’t know.

Oh, one other thing we do know. The current vaccine is apparently a fit. That is, it’s effective. It works.

I’m getting it. Soon as it becomes available here.

If H1N1 stays mild, then it’s just one less flu I’ll get (given I’ve already done the seasonal vaccine).

If it pulls a 1918 then… well… somebody’s going to have to help bury the bodies I guess…

Yes, retroviruses and influenza viruses behave differently, but the epidemiology of viral infections is very similar, even though there may be timecourse and virulence differences.

The analogy to the HIV pandemic has more to do with the public response. The point that was to made was that viral histories tend to start slowly, and can lead officals and the public alike to take them lightly. Then, after a period of spread, the attack rate truly becomes apparent, and the prevalence goes up exponentially.

In Eboblavirus, the attack rate is nearly 100% and the case mortality rate is close to 100%, so, things happen very fast and then it is over. A virus like that cannot spread very far because the affected people die before they can move on to infect others.

In contrast, the influenza viruses have low case mortality rates, so, people live to spread the virus. That leads to a rapid increase in prevalence. The only thing that keeps the prevalence from becoming catastrophic is that the time course of the disease is very short.

The types of viruses that demand large-scale responses are the viruses that spread quickly but have low kill rates. These viruses spread quickly and kill in large numbers by infecting really large numbers of people. That is what we have here.

The advantage, if you will, to retroviruses like HIV, is that the time course of the disease is very long. That allows the public response to “catch up” on the treatment and prevention side.

We do not have that luxury with influenza viruses.

The problem with H1N1 is exactly the number of people who have the disease. Currently, the number of people with 2009 A (H1N1) is roughly 20X the seasonal flu incidence.

With a case death rate between seasonal flu and H1N1 being the same at 0.1%, you can see how the officials are sounding the alarm over the current situation.

The CDC and the NIH are estimating an attack rate for 2009 of 8%. If the country has 301 million people, and the affected community rate is 75% and the attack rate is 8% and the case mortality rate is 0.1%, that means the number of deaths from the Swine Originated Influenza A (H1N1) will climb to 18,600 over and above the annualized burden of 20,000 from the Seasonal Influenza A, and that burden falls disproportionately upon the very young and upon pregnant women. If the affected community rate climbs to 90%, then added deaths rise to 20,600.

This situation is serious, but not catastrophic. If we elect to get out in front of this pandemic by proper education and vaccination, then we will be fine. If we do not, then there will be world-wide hell to pay. The case mortality rate is low in the US, but as we saw in Mexico last year, it can get out of hand very quickly.

We are right to sound the alarm on this issue. Since the 1919 Pandemic, conditions and therapies have improved beyond scope. However, we have also quadrupled the number of people on this planet, and we could easily see another pandemic that kills millions of people again. We saw what happened with the numbers in the HIV epidemic, and that is a virus with very poor communicability, long latency, and long disease course. This thing is easily spread, very virulent, and courses quickly—much more quickly than the health care system can respond.

and to get an estimate of how many children/ppl will be affected: the spanish flu and the flu in 77 were H1N1 strains Too!

remember that spanish flu and the flu pandemic in 77 were H1N1 strains as well!

yep, there IS sth. you’re missing!(and Andrew too)

1st: swineflu pandemic is only starting and (additional) deaths due to the disease will increase!
2nd: in history we already know of two other H1N1 Pandemics, one of which was the spanish flu and we all know about that!

you see why it is important to get vaccinated? and even when you’re healthy and young so you’ll survive the swineflu, you can protect the children, ppl. of weak health, family and friend around you. because if you’re vaccinated you can’t transmit the disease! if you’re not vaccinated, you can get swineflu and you might not even develop symptoms, but you’re a hazzard for all ppl. around you, esp. the weak, and those are the one thet will die, and it is due to you! only because you thought you don’t need vaccination cause you’re strong and young and healthy and you can survive the disease easily (which might be true)!
to protect weak ppl. who can’t get vaccinated it is essencial that those of us who CAN get vaccinated (but might not need it to SURVIVE) do so!
so for the overall Benefit get vaccinated! its the only way to protect others and it only works if those ppl. get vaccinated who would not neccesarily need the vaccination for themselves (they are strong enough to survive) but the cots and risks are low compared to the huge benefit for the society!!!

I hate how media is creating panic! but it is essencial for the weak ppl. in society that ppl. who can, get vaccinated and the only way to help stopping the disease!

oh and I do not know anyone from a pharmaceutic Company and I don’t work for one
I am a Student of infection Biology and epidemiology

So Davey, if you read this, PLEASE, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE(!!!!!!!) write back to me, what you think about it! also if you have questions! because you have such a huge fan community and what you think and say has a great impact. So I would really love you to be properly informed! Especially since you are a compassionate man who cares about others and about the weak ones in the society)
and there is so much more to know about all of this, and it really is important! just think about the possibility of you causing a death because you didn’t know sth you could easily have known